Full Court Press: Magic Numbers (Week 16)

It's never too early to start thinking about playoff implications, especially with the trade deadline looming in a few weeks. Luol Deng will probably be on the move away from Dublin before then, giving one playoff contending team an added boost. Where does your team stand?




Magic Numbers (Week 16)
By: Max Powers/Full Court Press


With just 6 weeks left in the regular season, no team has clinched a playoff spot in the EHBA, but there's a bit clearer picture developing near the top of the standings. Here's a break down of the current top 6 teams and what can be expected from them moving forward.


1.) Tokyo Vegans
84-48-3 (85.5 pts)
Magic Number - 38 (6 wins/week)
Remaining Schedule: FIT/TIJ/COL/MON/DUB/SC

The Vegans hit a snag in Week 15 with a 3-6 loss to the Lizards, but should bounce back nicely against the Foo Fighters. With a combination of wins and Weymouth/Rakeville losses, look for them to clinch a playoff spot before their final two games (and if not, their final two games are against Dublin and South Carolina, so they're probably pretty safe)
Estimated Week to clinch playoff spot: Week 19
Expected Playoff Seed: 1

2.) Las Vegas Lizards
82-51-2 (83.0 pts)
Magic Number - 40 (7 wins/week)
Remaining Schedule: BRW/PEO/RAK/WEY/FIT/TIJ

The Chris Paul-less Lizards gave themselves a big boost with a win against the Vegans but may be on the short end of the short-week stick this week against Bridgewater. With Paul out and guards Thornton and Iverson questionable, the Lizards will be a bit shorthanded against a high scoring Phenom roster. Still, look for them to take advantage of the match ups against Peoria, Weymouth, and Fitch.
Estimated Week to clinch playoff spot: Week 19
Expected Playoff Seed: 2

3.) Tijuana Matadors
74-61-0 (74.0 pts)
Magic Number - 49 (8 wins/week)
Remaining Schedule: SC/TKO/BRW/PEO/RAK/LV

Don't let the wins needed per week number fool you, the Matadors are much better than their record. A slow start to the season puts them in the number three hole, but their strong play in the second half should continue as the season comes to a close. With a match up against Peoria coming at the perfect time (Week 19), expect the Matadors to make playoff plans shortly after.
Estimated Week to clinch playoff spot: Week 20
Expected Playoff Seed: 3

4.) Montreal DeathPiggys
72-61-2 (73.0 pts)
Magic Number - 50 (8.5 wins/week)
Remaining Schedule: WEY/DUB/SC/TKO/BRW/PEO

Try as they might to drop, the DeathPiggys continue to stay in the playoff pack. After trading away two of their best big men, the Montreal fan base has expected a quick plummet to the bottom half of the standings. A combination of strong play and "good" luck has kept them in the playoff picture, and with a very favorable schedule to end the season (match ups against Weymouth, Dublin, South Carolina, and Peoria), look for the DeathPiggys to squeak out a playoff berth close to the end of the regular season.
Estimated Week to clinch playoff spot: Week 21
Expected Playoff Seed: 6

5.) Colorado Bears
71-61-3 (72.5 pts)
Magic Number - 50.5 (8.5 wins/week)
Remaining Schedule: DUB/SC/TKO/BRW/PEO/RAK

The Bears have been an up and down team in the last few weeks. They are 4-4 in their last 8 weeks and can't seem to get a decent winning streak going, but stand to be a formidable opponent each and every week, never winning less than 3 categories in any week this season (5 of their 8 losses were decided by just one category). Rumor has it the Bears are looking to add at least one more piece before the trade deadline. The quicker they do that the quicker they should find a spot in the playoffs with their name on it.
Estimated Week to clinch playoff spot: Week 20
Expected Playoff Seed: 4

6.) Bridgewater Phenoms
71-62-2 (72.0 pts)
Magic Number - 51 (8.5 wins/week)
Remaining Schedule: LV/FIT/TIJ/COL/MTL/DUB

The Phenoms may find themselves the beneficiary of teams giving up and playing for next year, keeping them in the middle of the playoff picture. With Weymouth dropping and looking to part ways with some of their veteran play makers and Montreal still trying to drop in the standings, though failing to do so quickly, Bridgewater finds themselves in a limbo-like situation. The X-factor here is a strong Rakeville roster than may find a way to put it all together and make a 6-week run and bump Bridgewater out. The Phenoms do not have a favorable schedule to end the season, with match ups against Las Vegas, Tijuana, Colorado, and Montreal. The final week may be their best shot, but expect the bar Brawlers to bring everything they can to play spoiler.
Estimated Week to clinch playoff spot: Not Expected
Expected Playoff Seed: 7

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Well, mathematically speaking, no teams have been eliminated from playoff contention, but of the 12 teams, 2 of them have made a pretty solid case. Here are the two most prevalent Cursed Numbers, the amount of losses needed to officially eliminate a team from playoff contention:


12.) Peoria Bricklayers
40-92-3 (41.5 pts)
Cursed Number - 24 (4 losses/week)
Remaining Schedule: RAK/LV/FIT/TIJ/COL/MTL

The Bricklayers are not only looking to solidify not making the playoffs, but to also guarantee the first overall draft pick int he 2010 EHBA Draft. With just 24 more losses needed and matchups against Rakeville, Las Vegas, and Tijuana on the horizon, not making the playoffs shouldn't be too difficult, and with the Bar Brawlers officially stating that they'd rather have the second overall draft pick, solidifying John Wall on their 2010/11 roster should be pretty easy as well.
Estimated Week to be eliminated from playoff contention: Week 19
Expected Playoff Seed: 12


11.) Dublin Bar Brawlers
46-89-0 (46.0 pts)
Cursed Number - 28.5 (5 losses/week)
Remaining Schedule: COL/MTL/WEY/SC/TKO/BRW

Are the Brawlers happy with how their season has gone? No. Do they plan on giving up? No. They won't make the playoffs but the Dublin roster will play hard for the final 6 weeks, even after they are mathematically eliminated from contention. They probably can't climb any higher than where they currently are in the standings, and with Peoria playing as poorly as they are the Brawlers probably can't drop either without noticeably tanking, which is not their style. Look for them to try their hardest to play spoiler the rest of the season.
Estimated Week to be eliminated from playoff contention: Week 20
Expected Playoff Seed: 11