FCP: Record Tracker / Magic Numbers (Week 21)

With the final week of play in the 2009/2010 regular season upon us, and so many teams still in the hunt for those final three playoff spots, FCP presents to you a special Final Week edition of Record Tracker, including playoff scenarios and magic numbers. Chris Paul doesn't look to return until the end of next week so the Lizards are really hoping for a strong final push at a bye, but Bridgewater is in the driver's seat.



Record Tracker / Magic Numbers (Week 21)
By: Max Powers; Full Court Press


Three team have clinched and fight over the top two spots while five other teams battle it out for the three open spots still available. Only four teams sit on the outside, with two of them hoping to play spoiler int he final week of play. With Peoria and Dublin already clinching the first and second picks in next year's draft respectively (and in one case a new winning % record) look for them to hold nothing back in Week 21 as they help add to the excitement for a change.

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Magic Numbers / Playoff Scenarios

1.) Tokyo Vegans
109-67-4 (111.0 pts)
Magic Number - Clinched playoff spot (At least the 3rd seed)
Magic Number to clinch first round BYE - 5.0; Top Seed: 6.0
Final opponent: South Carolina Rebels

The Vegans have the formality of solidifying the top seed this week, with a match up against the streaking Rebels. The number one seed gets to face the winner of the 4/5 match up fro the first round, which is yet to be officially determined but with the Week 21 match ups as they are it would not be a surprise to see Rakeville and Colorado in those seeds, with the winner facing off against the Vegans in the second round.

2.) Bridgewater Phenoms
105-70-5 (107.5 pts)
Magic Number - Clinched playoff spot (At least the 3rd seed)
Magic Number to clinch first round BYE - 8.5
Final Opponent: Dublin Bar Brawlers

The second seed, and final first round bye is still anyone's game, but the Phenoms hold most of the cards heading into the final week. They face off against the young Brawlers who have already clinched their coveted 2nd overall draft pick for next year's draft. With nothing to lose, Dublin may come out firing, giving the Phenoms something to fight for but with Vegas going up against Tijuana, the defending champs, look for Bridgewater to hold onto the final bye and possibly face Vegas in the 2nd round.

3.) Las Vegas Lizards
105-72-3 (106.5 pts)
Magic Number - Clinched playoff spot (At least the 3rd seed)
Final Opponent: Tijuana Matadors

The Lizards came into the season with dulled expectations and high hopes. They fought most of the season to hold onto one of the top two spots, but with the loss of star point guard Chris Paul their hold has been chipped away each and every week. They have clinched no lower than the 3rd seed in the playoffs, but with Paul not expecting to return until the end of next week, Vegas would really like that first week to rest up. None the less, they are expected to stay in the 3-hole and face off against the likes of either South Carolina, Montreal, or Tijuana, whom they end their regular season against in Week 21.

4.) Colorado Bears
95-82-3 (96.5 pts)
Magic Number - 5.0
Final Opponent: Rakeville Crows

Colorado, though hasn't clinched a playoff spot officially, has already put aside hotel rooms for the team they'll be hosting in the first round of the playoffs. The Bears should probably be hosting Rakeville once again, as the two face off in the final week and should probably tire each other out to a final score of around 5-4. Prediction: who ever wins the Week 21 match up, will lose the first round playoff rematch.

5.) Rakeville Crows
93-85-2 (94.0 pts)
Magic Number - 7.0
Final Opponent: Colorado Bears

Ya, sure, the Crows are only half a point up on the Rebels in the standings, but who's counting? Rakeville sure is, knowing they can easily be kicked out of the playoff race, never mind knocked down from the 5th overall seed. All their hard work in the second half of the season could be all for not with one bad week, but don't expect it. The Crows match up well against anyone out there, and as much as the rest of the playoff squad would rather see the Rebels in the playoffs than the Crows, look for Rakeville to squash those dreams and ride their own to a second round match up against Tokyo.

6.) South Carolina Rebels
92-85-3 (93.5 pts)
Magic Number - 7.5
Final Opponent: Tokyo Vegans

Just a few weeks ago South Carolina sat comfortably in 10th place, announcing how terrible they thought they were to the world. How things have changed. With 5 straight wins, albeit against all teams currently in the bottom half of the standings besides Colorado, the Rebels find themselves with a rejuvenated spirit and confidence about them. That new confidence will surely be tested in their final week against Tokyo. The possibility of finally put themselves in a position to may the playoffs after weeks and months of sitting in the bottom half, just to be kicked out in the final week of play has got to be stressful, not to mention that even if they make it out alive and live to play another week, they'll get matched up against one of Bridgewater, Las Vegas, or even rematch against Tokyo. Their best case scenario would be that Colorado blows out Rakeville, Tokyo goes easy on them, and they sneak their way into the 5th seed. Stranger things have happened. Right?

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7.) Tijuana Matadors
92-87-1 (92.5 pts)
Cursed Number - 8.5
Final Opponent: Las Vegas Lizards

From a solid 4th seeded team and on the brink of jumping to number three, to a bubble team hoping for a break in the final week. The defending champs are in a difficult situation, a similar one their Week 21 opponent, the Lizards, found themselves in this time last year: they're too good to drop too far in the standings to grab a better draft pick but may not be good enough to make the jump into the playoffs. Week 21 will tell for the Matadors, who need a good week against Vegas, who are on their own bubble fighting it out. With the Rebels going up against the Vegans the Matadors have a shot, it's just too bad Montreal, who is only a half point back from them, has the luxury of visiting Peoria in the final week.

8.) Montreal DeathPiggys
90-86-4 (92.0 pts)
Cursed Number - 8.0
Final Opponent: Peoria Bricklayers

Don't let the standings fool you - Montreal is a playoff team. Always has been, and for the foreseeable future, always will be. It may have seemed like they've succeeded in dropping to the bottom of the barrel in order to solidify a better draft pick in next year's draft, but they've saved the best for last: a final week match up against the new "worst team in EHBA history"*. The Piggys look to jump over Tijuana and South Carolina in the final week to grab that number six seed, much to their dissapointment, because even though Montreal has the capability of winning eah and every week against any opponent, they are well aware they probably wouldn't make it out of the first round at this point and would much rather have that 5th overall draft pick in order to fight for a bye in the 2011 playoffs rather than fighting for the 6th seed in the 2010 playoffs. They're just have to fight for both.



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Record Tracker 2009/2010


Below is a list of records broken during the 2009/10 season, along with the current leaders in each category and what they would need in the final week to break the record...

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Season-Long Record Watch:

FG%
Current Record: .487 (LV - 2007/08)
2009/10 Leader: .482 (FIT) - On Pace For: .482

FT%
Current Record: .818 (DUB - 2007/08)
2009/10 Leader: .802 (TKO) - On Pace For: .800

3PTM
Current Record: 892 (DUB - 2007/08)
2009/10 Leader: 786 (COL) - On Pace For: 825
Needed to Break: 106

PTS
Current Record: 13,091 (BRW - 2008/09)
2009/10 Leader: 12,419 (TKO) - On Pace For: 13,040
Needed to Break: 672

REB
Current Record: 5133 (COL - 2007/08)
2009/10 Leader: 4828 (TKO) - On Pace For: 5069
Needed to Break: 305

AST
Current Record: 2744 (TIJ - 2008/09)
2009/10 Leader: 2529 (BRW) - On Pace For: 2655
Needed to Break: 215

ST
Current Record: 899 (MTL - 2007/08)
2009/10 Leader: 862 (COL) - On Pace For: 905
Needed to Break: 37

BLK
Current Record: 651 (RAK - 2007/08)
2009/10 Leader: 610 (LV) - On Pace For: 640
Needed to Break: 41

TO
Current Record: 1160 (COL - 2008/09)
2009/10 Leader: 1226 (DUB) - On Pace For: 1287
CANNOT BE BROKEN THIS SEASON

HIGHEST WINNING %
Current Record: .619 (TIJ - 2008/09)
2009/10 Leader: .617 (TKO) - On Pace For: .617
Needed to Tie: 6 win (or equivalent); Needed to Break: 6.5 wins (or equivalent)

LOWEST WINNING %
Current Record: .352 (COL - 2008/09)
2009/10 Leader: .317 (PEO) - On Pace For: .317
PEORIA HAS ALREADY CLINCHED THE RECORD (The highest winning % they can have at the end of the regular season is .349)*


*Yes, I know mathematically there's still a possibility that Dublin is crowned the "new worst team in EHBA History" but c'mon.

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Current Unbeaten/Winless Streaks**....

LONGEST UNBEATEN STREAK RECORD:
Current Record: 8 Weeks (LV/MTL - 2007/08)

Active Streaks***:
BRW: 5 Unbeaten Weeks
SC: 5 Unbeaten Weeks
LV: 2 Unbeaten Weeks
TKO: 2 Unbeaten Weeks
TIJ: 2 Unbeaten Weeks
COL: 1 Unbeaten Weeks



LONGEST WINLESS STREAK RECORD:
Current Record: 13 Weeks (PEO - 2008/09)

Active Streaks***:
PEO: 9 Winless Weeks
MTL: 4 Winless Weeks
DUB: 3 Winless Weeks
WEY: 2 Unbeaten Weeks
FIT: 2 Unbeaten Weeks
RAK: 1 Unbeaten Weeks


**With only one week left, neither of these records can be broken this season. Streaks will carry over to the start of the 2010/2011 regular season.
***Streaks include regular season match ups only.

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Weekly records tied/broken during 2009/10 season****:

3PTM: COL - 61 (Week 1)
ST: COL - 59 (Week 3)*****
BLK: RAK - 45 (Week 13)
REB: TIJ - 317 (Week 14)
FG%: PEO - .539 (Week 15)
ST: BRW - 63 (Week 18)*****

****Any and all records tied or broken during the shortened NBA All-Star Week do not count in the EHBA record books.
*****COL first set a new Weekly Steals record in Week 3 of the 2009/10 season, only to have it broken 15 weeks later by BRW

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Full Court Press: Magic Numbers/Power Rankings (Week 19)

As the stars of Las Vegas stay home nursing injuries, and the star of Weymouth sits on the outside of the playoff picture looking in, two stars of are pushing their teams into the spotlight. Steve Nash (RAK) and Kobe Bryant (BRW) are the main reasons their teams are as dominant as they are.





Are The Stars Lining Up?
By: Max Powers and Alexander Marquez Alejandro; Full Court Press


Just 3 weeks ago the Bridgewater Phenoms sat in 6th place, barely holding onto the final playoff spot in the EHBA standings. They were even written off as being one of the odd men out in a tight race that involved all but 2 teams. Now the Phenoms sit in the number two hole in the standings, at the expense of the Las Vegas Lizards, in control of getting one of the two coveted first round byes in the playoffs, immunity if you will, if just for one week. Dana Barros hasn't been the most active GM in the league, but he's held fast on giving up too early and it's paying off late in the season. He's squashed rumor after rumor that star Kobe Bryant was on the move, one that he started himself during the 2009 draft. The Phenoms now sit that much closer to the top of the standings, thanks in part to Bryant, who, despite being a known rapist*, has carried them this far, and hopes to carry them deep into the playoffs.

At the other end of the playoff picture sits the Rakeville Crows, who were written off back in Week 4, only to be resurrected and then anointed as "the best team in the EHBA" three weeks later. After 18 long weeks they finally hold a playoff spot in the standings, at the expense of the Tijuana Matadors who have been knocked out of the top six after securely holding their own for weeks. Crows GM Tim Legler also squashed rumors of their star, Steve Nash, being traded. The team has been very fickle about their intentions on trading their star in the past, at one point offering up the star for multiple 1st round draft picks, then declining that exact offer shortly after, but though the deadline is only a few days away, there is no indication that Nash will be headed anywhere but the Rakeville bus when the Crows inevitably travel from city to city through the playoffs. They may technically start the playoffs as underdogs, but there's not one team that wants to host them in the first round. Or the second for that matter.



*Yeah, yeah, he was acquitted, fuck you. We all know he raped that chick.


Magic Numbers (Week 19)
By: Max Powers; Full Court Press


1.) Tokyo Vegans
96-62-4 (98.0 pts)
Magic Number - 11.5 (4 wins/week)
Magic Number to clinch first round BYE - 23.0 (7.5 wins/week)
Remaining Schedule: MON/DUB/SC

The Vegans look like they're trying to make the race for the two BYEs more interesting. They've been unable to make a trade for a top point guard, and looks like they'll have to settle on Sergio Rodriguez's new roll to help them in the final weeks. Tokyo fans aren't too worried however. With the final three week opponents being a falling Montreal squad, a young Dublin roster, and a questionable Rebels team, they should easily hold onto one of the BYEs heading into the playoffs.

2.) Bridgewater Weasels
92-66-4 (94.0 pts)
Magic Number - 15.5 (5 wins/week)
Magic Number to clinch first round BYE - 27 (9 wins/week)
Remaining Schedule: COL/MTL/DUB

Out of nowhere the Phenoms have personified their team name in the past few weeks. Kobe, Harrington, and Iguodala have lead the team to the promise of a first round bye after barely holding onto the 6th playoff seed just 3 weeks ago. It just proves that the race is closer than anyone thought, and any team can end up anywhere in the standings. Regardless, Bridgewater is currently in the drivers seat heading into the final three weeks.

3.) Las Vegas Lizards
92-67-3 (93.5 pts)
Magic Number - 16.0 (5 wins/week)
Remaining Schedule: WEY/FIT/TIJ

The Lizards have gone all in this season to try and win a championship, but they've sputtered the last few weeks. Their remaining schedule is very favorable, with games against free-falling Weymouth and a struggling Fitchburg team, before closing out against a Tijuana squad that's been making some more savvy moves leading up to the deadline. They should cruise against the Dumpster Divers, but watch out for Fitchburg, whose games always seem to end 5-4. They'll need the cushion of a couple of blowouts before finishing against the defending champs. Considering Bridgewater closes it out against Dublin, the race for the bye will come right down to the wire.

4.) Montreal DeathPiggys
86-73-3 (87.5 pts)
Magic Number - 22.0 (7 wins/week)
Remaining Schedule: TKO/BRW/PEO

Those pesky piggys just won't go away. Try as they might to trade away "win-now" type players, Montreal has stayed on pace to win now. They may have hit some pockets of resistance in the past few weeks, but they can't seem to budge from the middle of the playoff pack, as teams below them do better, and teams above them get worse. They may have two difficult weeks ahead of them (vs TKO and vs BRW), but since they close out the season against already eliminated Peoria, the playoffs seem like their destiny, and try as they might, they can't fight destiny.

5.) Colorado Bears
85-74-3 (86.5 pts)
Magic Number - 23.0 (7.5 wins/week)
Remaining Schedule: BRW/PEO/RAK

Last week the Bears were worried they had mortgaged their 2010 draft for the number 7 seed. After a 7-2 blow out against the top seeded team, Colorado's confidence has skyrocketed. They get the pleasure of proving themselves this week against the surging Phenoms, a break against the Bricklayers, and then put it all on the line against the Crows, which could end being the match up of the year, with both teams with everything to win/lose.

6.) Rakeville Crows
83-77-2 (84.0 pts)
Magic Number - 25.5 (8.5 wins/week)
Remaining Schedule: FIT/TIJ/COL

The best team in the EHBA finally squeaked into the playoff picture, thanks largely to a Tijuana meltdown at the hands of Phenoms last week. The cream of the crap has finally risen above it all and has really got to be the most feared team in the top 6 right now. Don't let their record fool you (they're actually just 4-4 against other current playoff bound teams this season), Rakeville will be a scary team if they can hold onto their playoff spot. It'll be fun to watch their final two match ups against other borderline teams fighting for that spot. Don't expect the Crows to be the odd team out however.




Power Rankings (Week 19)
By: Alexander Marquez Alejandro; Full Court Press

1. Bridgewater - I'll be honest--I have no idea how they're doing it. The team looks not so great on paper, but they keep on rolling.

2. Tokyo - Smackdown to Colorado last week notwithstanding, they still look like the team to beat in the playoffs.

3. Las Vegas - No longer control their own destiny, but still well-positioned to make a run in the playoffs. They may actually be better off in the 4th seed if they can't get the Bye though; Rakeville would be a crappy reward for the 3rd seed.

4. Colorado - It was big trouble in Little Tokyo for the Vegans last week, as the Bears showed that their previous struggles are behind them.

5. Rakeville - Everyone in Tokyo was bummed to see them get back into the playoff chase against Las Vegas. Too bad those custom made 'NASH' Vegan jerseys aren't refundable.

6. Tijuana - Team is a little top-heavy with Butler, Terry, Marion, Kidd, and Haywood all playing big minutes, but they should still make the playoffs. Clash with Rakeville next week will be huge.

7. Montreal - I don't know how they're staying afloat. With games against Tokyo and Bridgewater, you have to think they're finished...but then along comes Peoria to close out the season. Despite Jackie Moon's best efforts, they may be playoff-bound after all.

8. South Carolina - Hard to get too excited about the win over Montreal, but it's a favorable schedule the next two weeks. With a little luck, they could end up in the playoff hunt. It's a shame it might come down to a few categories here and there, since their coach has failed to update his lineup multiple times, costing them those precious wins.

9. Fitchburg - They seem to be in every game, but they just seal the deal. They needed a blowout against Peoria, but just barely escaped with a win. Looks like it's just not going to happen for them this year.

10. Weymouth - Ouch. LeBron can make a turd look pretty nice, but apparently only for about four weeks.

11. Dublin - The youngsters can be frisky on any given night.

12. Peoria - Apparently Rip Hamilton is available...


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League Notes:

-The Peoria Bricklayers were mathematically eliminated from playoff contention after their Week 18 loss to Fitch Foo Fighters, the latest in a season Peoria has stayed in the playoff chase!**

-The DeathPiggys traded away PF/C Mehmet Okur this week. When questioned about it, GM Jackie Moon responded, "It's no secret I've always hated Serbians." When told that Okur was actually Turkish, Moon cried out, "Good God, what have I done?!!?"

-Tokyo has been surprisingly inactive in the trade market so far this year, leading some to speculate...something something time zones. There's a joke in there.**

**probably

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